BVD CONSULT

A state-transition model to stimulate the economics of bovine virus diarrhoea control

aDepartment of Farm Management, Wageningen Agricultural University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN, Wageningen, Netherlands bDepartment og Large Animal Medicine and Nutrition, Veterinary Faculty, Yalelaan 16, 3508 TD, Utrecht, Netherlands

Abstract

A state-transition model was developed to examine the control of bovine virus diarrhoea (BVD) virus (BVDV) infections epidemiologically and economically at the farm level, using a computer spreadsheet program. The model offers the possibility of comparing and evaluating the alternatives ‘no intervention’ and ‘culling carriers’. All input variables can easily be modified to suit different conditions and areas, making it a flexible tool for policy making and decision support. Results of calculations with the most likely input values for Dutch conditions showed that culling the carriers which were persistently infected after an outbreak of BVD was economically unattractive (especially if there was any risk of reinfection). Further research is desired (1) to model the losses due to immunosuppression caused by BVDV infection, and (2) to predict more precisely the spread of BVDV after culling the carriers.

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This article was published in Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 20, E. J. Pasmana,1, A. A. Dijkhuizena, and G. H. Wentinkb, A state-transition model to stimulate the economics of bovine virus diarrhoea control, 269-277, Copyright Elsevier 1994.