aVeterinary Informatics and Epidemiology, Department of Statistics and Modelling Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XH, UK bInstitute for Animal Health, Compton, Newbury, Berks, RG20 7NN, UK
The spread of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in a closed dairy herd maintained under typical management conditions is studied using two approaches. In the first instance a stochastic computer model is used to simulate the month-to-month changes in the infection status of each animal. These results are contrasted with the results of a mass-action model which uses three differential equations. A comparison of the two approaches indicates that the results are in broad agreement. The stochastic approach has the benefit of providing an estimate of the probability of the infection becoming extinct and the herd becoming BVDV-free for different herd sizes.
This article was published in Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 31, G. Innocenta, I. Morrisonb, J. Brownlieb, and G. Gettinbya, The use of a mass-action model to validate the output from a stochastic simulation model of bovine viral diarrhoea virus spread in a closed dairy herd, 199-209, Copyright Elsevier 1997.